Thursday, February 21, 2008

ABQ IS STILL A GOOD REAL ESTATE MARKET

Every day, and I mean every day, I get someone who says with a concerned look, "I see that real estate sales are down in Albuqueruque." Well, yes, BUT let's look at why that is not a bad thing except perhaps for those marginal realtors who got into the business last year to make a killing and are now dropping like flies. But I digress.



The important fact is that we never really saw a real estate "bubble" in terms of terribly inflated prices of homes that sold. We did see an increase in inventory of both new homes and resale homes. The builders not only overbuilt but they moved away from building homes that people could afford in ABQ and now are stuck with their inventory that is moving slowly. Well, that was, and is, their problem for poor planning, not the market's problem.



We did have some sellers, and still do, who think they can get more for their home than the market is willing to pay, but that is the seller's problem not the market's. Seller's assumptions of assumed appreciation need to match the buyers assessment of value. So now we see sellers pulling their homes off the market or reducing their prices. That's okay. It's a good adjustment.



We also had out-of-state investors who dove into this market when AZ, CA and NV stopped looking so good. They paid way too much for homes, particularly in the UNM and Rio Rancho areas. They expected to sell houses within months or raise rents to meet their investment goals. Well, the market stopped buying and you can't raise rents in NM unless wages go up which they are not so now those investors are "stuck" but for sure, they aren't buying much anymore. The only ones we have are those who are looking to buy homes in foreclosure, fix them up and sell them. This is not a bad thing as they can bring in the cash to make the homes marketable again. Bottom-line, investors pumped prices up some in some specific areas, and now the prices are back to normal.



So yes, the volume of sales is off from the past two years, but the value of homes is still appreciating. We are not seeing the artificial appreciation of over 10% a year we saw when the market was hot here, but we are back to our steady 4-6% a year that we usually expect. In the race between the turtle and the hare, we are the turtle..... slow and steady. So my advice is to relax. We have a solid market with some short term adjustments that are healthy. ABQ has a fair, steady, appreciating real estate market with no bubble to burst. My advise: BUY!

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