HOUSING RECOVERY LATE 2009

Forecast Positive for Second Half of 2008Thursday, March 06, 2008 National Realty News

WASHINGTON, D.C. - The volume of existing-home sales is expected to hold steady through late spring, with a gradual recovery during the second half of the year as the mortgage situation improves in high-cost areas, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said many buyers have been waiting for higher mortgage loan limits. “The higher loan limits for both FHA and conventional loans will increase consumer choice and provide greater access to lower interest rate mortgages in high-cost regions,” he said. “Therefore, a notable rise in home sales can be anticipated in the second half of the year." Realtors locally report that calls off of signs and activity has picked up in since the start of March.
In ABQ, the number of sales is off by 35% from last year this month, but the average sales price has increase about 1% a month so far this year. A pattern of disparate price performance continues around the country with a roughly even split between up and down markets. Many areas that have lost jobs are showing price declines which might be why ABQ looks good. We are gaining jobs.
“New-home sales nationally should decline 23.7 percent to 590,000 this year before rising 7.2 percent to 633,000 in 2009. Locally, KB Homes has announced that they are leaving ABQ. For years they successfully built for starter-homes at the low end, but their last move to higher priced homes here has proven to be a poor strategic move.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which has moved erratically in recent weeks, is expected to hover around 5.8 percent most of the year, and then rise to an average of 6.3 percent in 2009. Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) should be 1.5 percent this year and 2.4 percent in 2009. The unemployment rate is projected to average 5.4 percent in 2008 and 5.5 percent next year. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, will probably be 3.2 percent this year and 1.5 percent in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is expected to grow 1.4 percent in 2008 and 3.1 percent next year.